01
Probabilistic Modeling
Probabilistic Modeling
Identifying failure, degradation, and propagation mechanisms in complex systems, moving from correlation toward interpretable causal relations.
Reliability Engineering · Ph.D. Student
Zheng Yi-Xuan郑一选(Onepick)
Ph.D. Student University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC)
I study how complex systems fail, degrade, and propagate risk under uncertainty, with a focus on probabilistic modeling, decision optimization, and the reliability and resilience of AI infrastructure and aerospace equipment systems.
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“onepick for my only one life
believe in the power of time and patience
01 / RESEARCH
Research threads
My work seeks to understand interdependent systems: how to identify causal relations and probabilistic coupling, uncover the value of available monitoring information, and guide improvements in the reliability and resilience of AI infrastructure and aerospace equipment systems.
02
Decision Optimization
Decision Optimization
Extracting the value of information from incomplete and multi-source observations to support trustworthy decisions for complex systems.
03
Engineering Applications
Engineering Applications
Studying equipment degradation, dependencies, and risk propagation in AI infrastructure and aerospace equipment systems, while quantifying reliability and resilience.
02 / PUBLICATIONS
Publications & collaboration
JOURNAL ARTICLES03 first author/09 total
- 01
Reliability assessment of systems with mixed degradation components: An adaptive hybrid Bayesian network framework
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 75, 2721–2735
- 02
Reliability assessment of reconfigurable k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 74(3), 3745–3759
- 03
Structure function learning of hierarchical multi-state systems with incomplete observation sequences
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 216, 107902
- 04
Evidence theory-based seismic vulnerability assessment of ultra-high voltage converter transformers under hybrid uncertainty
Acta Mechanica Sinica, 42(8), 725816
- 05
Maintenance importance measures incorporating tripartite component dependence
IISE Transactions, 1–19
- 06
Sequential inspection policy optimization for hierarchical multistate systems
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 262, 111185
- 07
Dynamic reliability assessment of hierarchical multistate systems with sensors’ degradation
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 74(3), 3784–3798
- 08
Reliability modeling of modular k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency: A case study of radar transmitter systems
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 233, 109120
- 09
Optimal loading strategy for multi-state systems: Cumulative performance perspective
Applied Mathematical Modelling, 74, 199–216
CONFERENCE RECORDS05
- 01
Reliability bounding and updating for multi-state systems via dynamic credal networks under imperfect observation
The 12th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling · Singapore
- 02
Utility-based optimization of self-diagnosis and mission abort policies for phase-dependent systems
2025 IEEE Global Reliability and Prognostics and Health Management Conference (PHM-Xi’an) · Xi’an, China
- 03
Reliability assessment of k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency: a case study of kerosene filling systems
The 15th Global Reliability & Prognostics and Health Management Conference · Beijing, China
- 04
Reliability modeling of modular k-out-of-n systems with functional dependence
The 27th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability & Quality in Design · Miami, Florida, USA (Virtual)
- 05
Reliability structure function learning with incomplete data for multi-state systems
2020 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering · Xi’an, China
CO-AUTHOR NETWORKCollaboration is not a list of names,
Collaboration is not a list of names,
but a shared effort.
Generated from published journal articles.
03 / CV
Education & professional experience
EDUCATION & EXPERIENCE
Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering
UESTC · School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering · Supervisor: Prof. Yu Liu
Visiting Ph.D. Student (Joint Training)
National University of Singapore (NUS) · Supervisor: Prof. Zhisheng Ye · Funded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC)
Quality & Reliability Engineer
Quality Department · Nanjing Research Institute of Electronic Technology
M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering
UESTC · School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering · Supervisor: Prof. Yu Liu · Recommended admission (exempt from the national graduate entrance examination)
Visiting Student
Lady Margaret Hall, University of Oxford · Leadership Development in Arts and Sciences · Fully funded by UESTC
B.Sc. in Industrial Engineering
UESTC · Admitted through the National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) as a candidate from Henan Province
BEYOND THE TIMELINEImperfect,
Imperfect,
still me.
Alongside the finished work, I want to keep an honest record of what did not work, what took a detour, and what I chose again. These moments shaped me too.
Missing the required letter format in the Gaokao essay
On the first day of the 2015 Gaokao, I overlooked the requirement to write the Chinese essay as a letter and wrote an argumentative essay instead. Worried that it would cost too many points, I stayed awake all night and even considered giving up the next day’s exams. My parents persuaded me to finish the remaining subjects; in the end, the essay was not heavily penalized. It taught me to stop worrying about what is finished and focus on the next step still within reach.
Leaving the workplace, taking a gap, and returning to university
After my master’s degree, I left university and spent one year as a quality and reliability engineer in Nanjing. I later chose to resign and took a separate one-year gap to reconsider engineering, choice, and life before returning to university for a Ph.D.—not the shortest route, but one that made me clearer about why I research.
04 / READING
Reading
Reading is another form of slow accumulation: sentences understood, judgments changed, and the traces they leave over time. Data updates automatically from WeChat Reading.
DATA VIA WECHAT READINGLoading reading records
Recorded in WeChat Reading
Calendar-year total
Days with at least one minute
ON THE SHELF
Currently reading
Only public, unfinished shelf entries are shown
05 / SPORTS
Sports
Cycling, running, and swimming are another way I spend time beyond research. Data updates automatically from Strava.
DATA VIA STRAVA · SINCE SEP 2024
ALL-TIME TOTALS
Cumulative cycling, running, and swimming dataAll-time totals
CYCLING
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RUNNING
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SWIMMING
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YEAR TO DATE
Data not yet synced2026 Year in review
CYCLINGThis year
RUNNINGThis year
SWIMMINGThis year
BEST EFFORTS
Ranked by longest single distanceBest efforts by activity
CYCLINGCycling
RUNNINGRunning
SWIMMINGSwimming
RIDE PROFILE
Cycling distance & elevation
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- Biggest single climb
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- elevation · This year
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- elevation · All-time totals
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Latest activityLoading activity data
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A NOTE BEYOND THE CV
A person’s essence is not their experiences, but the crystalline inner life known only to oneself—intangible and untouched.一选